POTTSTOWN PA – Which way is student enrollment in the Pottsgrove School District headed during the next five years? Up? Yes, a little in some grades, or a lot, depending on which statistics are used. Down? Same answer. Unchanged? Ditto.

Seemingly contradictory numbers filled the air early Tuesday night (Feb. 23, 2010) as the district Board of School Directors met at Ringing Rocks Elementary School to talk about that building’s expansion and renovation, and the district’s overall space requirements in coming years.

Pottsgrove school board members and administrators listen Tuesday as demographics expert Tracy Healy explains her company's enrollment projections for the district, displayed on a screen in the Ringing Rocks gym.

During the past decade, Pottsgrove’s historic enrollment “looks pretty flat,” according to Tracy Healy, president of DeJong-Healy, an Ohio-based school demographics research firm who spoke to directors – and their accompanying audience of about 150 people – by telephone. In 10 years, she said, the district’s kindergarten through 12th grade enrollment has grown by a net gain of just 21 students.

Looming beneath that line, however, is what Healy described as an important difference: enrollment in kindergarten through fifth grade during the same decade was up, and specifically in kindergarten through third grade it rose by 7 percent. The implication, she said, is that the district’s student population is getting younger.

That’s reinforced by live birth rates and local population estimates DeJong-Healy studied for the period of 2008 to 2013. From those, Healy said, it can be determined that the number of children living in the district between infancy and age 10 is expected to rise; that no growth is anticipated among students ages 11-13; and that the number of students age 14-18 will decline.

The differences may be even more pronounced, Healy said, if already accepted new residential communities ever get under way. Although new home construction permits issued have dropped in the recession from their peak in 2004, she noted that 300 more homes have been approved to be built in Lower Pottsgrove (PA) Township, and another 200 in Upper Pottsgrove.

Pennsylvania Department of Education estimates for Pottsgrove’s student growth, based on its own studies, put enrollment figures – even in the high school age bracket – somewhat higher, district Superintendent Dr. Bradley Landis explained.

A Gilbert Architects' rendition of the proposed west wing of Ringing Rocks Elementary School, where four of nine new classrooms would be added.

School board members must digest all these figures, and others, in trying to determine how many new classrooms should be built as part of the Ringing Rocks project. Current plans displayed Tuesday by Gilbert Architects Inc. of Lancaster PA call for nine additional classrooms, but some directors have made it clear they think that’s four or five too many.

And if the state’s statistics are to be believed, directors admitted, the next project facing the district and its taxpayers may be a renovation of Pottsgrove High School. Even without student growth there, district Business Administrator David Nester said, mechanical and other systems in the aging building have already exceeded their expected life and likely will need to be replaced.

Related (to Ringing Rocks Elementary School renovations):

• Green Discussion At Ringing Results In Red Faces
• Pottsgrove, Archdiocese Still Discussing Pius Lease
• Ringing Rocks Relocation Discussion Set For Tonight
• In The Ringing Rebuild, Whither Pius?
• Ringing Rocks Relocation Plan: Modulars At MS
• Ringing Rocks Construction Cost Hearing Tonight
• Planners OK Ringing Rocks Land Sketch
• District Sets Dec. 3 Hearing On Rocks Budget
• Pottsgrove Asks State Help To Pay For Ringing Re-Build
• As School Opens, Progress On Ringing Rocks’ Project
• Surprise Enrollment Spurs Demographic Interest
• District Assembles Ringing Rocks Planning Team
• District OKs Architect Negotiations
• Consensus On Ringing Renovations: $16M
• Ringing Rocks Proposals Aired Tuesday
• Ringing Rocks Re-Examined April 14
• Pottsgrove To Trust-But-Verify On Ringing Plans
• Ringing Rocks Plans Take Another Step
• No Shortage Of Ideas At Pottsgrove Meeting
• Weigh In On Pottsgrove Renovations
• Framing The Rocks Discussion
• Response Mixed To Pottsgrove Improvements
• District Invites Public For Study Results
• A Different Rocks, But Only As A Concept

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